Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have piled up.
Per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
