Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
